In 1944, a Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal adopted what he called Circular Cumulative Causation theory in discussing the Negro problem and Modern Democracy in America. He submitted that taking note of the core variables, that a change in one institution will lead to successive change in other institutions. This systematic theory are often applied in negation, but it also shades positive lights if so tailored. Circular Cumulative Causation is an economist adaptation of the principle of Circular causality which highlights the reciprocal relationship between two events. The equation is simple: A influences B, and vice versa. Gunnar Myrdal would in 1974 win the coveted Nobel prize for Economics. Circular Cumulative Causation is a theme in ‘Issues of Development’ today.
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The Peter Obi “disruptive candidacy” or the ObiDatti campaign for 2023 elections is a ‘Cumulative Circular Causation ‘ in the offing.
It is one candidacy too many in the ‘right sense’. The spiral positive effects on the Nigerian people and nation will be huge from the moment Peter Obi and Baba Datti Ahmed are sworn in, come May 29, 2023.
1. The victory of Obidients in 2023 presidential election is a return to Democracy in its truest sense. This is because Peter Obi is only the symbol for the quest for return of power to the people. If Obi wins, Nigerian people and not just Labour party is the winner. This is closely linked to the foundation of true leadership. Achebe’s 1983 postulation that the trouble with Nigeria is a problem of leadership is therefore addressed positively by this singular feat to come. Responsibility is automatically imposed on the leadership because it is not a victory by party structure or godfather but solely by God and Will of the people. This too will be an invitation for other noble men to take part in active politics.
2. The Obi-Datti candidacy according to many pan Nigeria group like Afenifere, Pandef and Ohaneze is founded on the tripold of Equity, Fairness and Justice. If Obi and Datti are sworn in by 29th May 2023, these ethical principles gain strong footing in Nigeria socio political space. The subsequent events will be interpretation and application.
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3. Nigeria socio political literatures are common with vocabularies like tribalism, nepotism, religious fanaticism and so on. Obi-Datti presidency on the first day deals a blow to these negation in our polity.
4. When structures of subjugation are dismantled, freedom is presumed. The foreseen crushing of ‘oligarchy structures’ come next year would automatically bestow on the land a sense of patriotism, a sense that you and I matter in this country, regardless of our family background. Obi-Datti presidency has an immediate impact on the way we feel about our country; and this is the first step the nation building and development.
5. The process of reconciliation, reconstruction and rehabilitation announced 52 years ago will be fundamentally achieved if Obi is sworn in next year as Nigeria’s president. Yes, the root of agitation is found in search for identity. Marginalization is a by product of prejudice and disregard to the others’ worth as persons or a group or a people. Obi- Datti presidency is an ontological healing of the wounds of civil war. On this, the position of Nnadi’s LNC and MNK will be greatly addressed. The case for a new constitution or a referendum are genuine quest within the confines of human right. Yet, they are largely results of absence of Equity and justice. In Arabic numbering, there is 1, before 2, 3, 4 and so on. The Igbo’s are “normadic” traders. They are everywhere in Nigeria and have their livelihood so domiciled. All they need is a level playing field. It was a denial of such that triggered the unfortunate 30 months civil war ( 1967-1970). A perceived restoration of their dignity and assurances of fairness, equity and justice is the easiest and surest way to begin an end to the ‘civil war’. Obi-Datti presidency is the assurance of that.
What a positive Circular Cumulative Causation we have before us. The five points above are immediate achievement if Obi- Datti are sworn in next year as president and vice president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. They are the strong foundation for seamless implementation of the Obi-Datti manifesto. Therefore, Nigerians, let us unite to take back our country. Do not listen to the naysayers, their political or academic portfolios notwithstanding. People’s revolutions often catches up with the ‘elites’ un prepared. Obi-Datti is a PO-ssibility and its a mission almost being accomplished. The ‘ structures of corruption and subjugation ‘ are already shaken and terrified. The reality of these Circular Cumulative Causation should energise us the more to finish stronger. The future is Now.
Theodore Ekwem C.