Ahead of the February 25, 2023, presidential election, a new opinion poll conducted by Nextier, has predicted a possible runoff after the first ballot.
Although the poll, which is yet to be formally released but obtained by THEWILL, showed the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, polled a lead over Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Nextier indicated that none of the three candidates was able to secure absolute majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states in the first round.
The survey conducted on Friday, January 27, 2023, used 144 enumerators from both urban and rural communities to poll 3,000 respondents in all states in Nigeria.
The polls were conducted face-to-face, with emphasis on age and gender. Using a total sample population of 3,000 registered voters, who have collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), and with a margin error of 2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval, respondents were asked to select their preferred party using the party logo with the presidential candidates’ names.
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Results of the poll indicated that Peter Obi of the Labour Party, secured the highest voter preference among leading presidential candidates, with 37 percent of the poll results, closely followed by the PDP (27 percent) and APC (24 percent).
However, Nextier said the elections may be decided in a second-round runoff because Peter Obi, is unlikely to secure 25 percent of the votes cast in two-thirds of the states.
“No presidential candidate currently looks able to meet the criteria for outright victory (absolute majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states in the first round),” the poll indicated.